Deal details: Boston Red Sox acquire OF Tyler O’Neill for RHPs Nick Robertson and Victor Santos
The Cardinals have been rumored to be shopping one or more of their outfielders for forever, and on Friday they finally made one such swap, sending Tyler O’Neill to Boston for right-handed reliever Nick Robertson and right-handed minor-league starter Victor Santos.
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Red Sox land Tyler O'Neill in trade with Cardinals
O’Neill had a breakout season in 2021, hitting .286/.352/.560 with 34 homers, but had a 31 percent strikeout rate that portended some quick regression. That came immediately, and in the past two years he’s hit .229/.310/.397 while missing about half of the Cardinals’ games with at least four distinct injuries to his back, shoulder, hamstring, and foot. (It’s just a flesh wound.)
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Most of the damage he’s done in that span has been off lefties, with a .295 OBP over the past two years against right-handed pitchers. That same 2021 season was his career-best showing on defense as well, as he was 6 Runs Above Average as a left fielder, but he’s been at 0 over the past two seasons while spending a little time in center as well, although the relatively poor showing could be because he was never exactly healthy. In an ideal world, he’s a platoon bat in left field who can handle center in a pinch and isn’t so atrocious that he can never face a right-hander but should at least avoid those with big fastballs and/or plus breaking stuff. He has one year left until free agency.
Nick Robertson began his career with the Dodgers before being traded to the Red Sox this summer for Kiké Hernández. (Meg Oliphant / Getty Images)Robertson was a seventh-round pick by the Dodgers in 2019 and came to Boston just this summer in a trade for Kiké Hernández, showing above-average stuff but poor command in his brief big-league time. He was up to 97 mph in the majors with a little ride up in the zone. He paired that with a hard-sweeping slider and a changeup that worked for him in the minors but that lefties hammered in the majors. The change can show a little fade and tumble, but he threw a bunch in the majors that had little to none of that movement, with predictable results. He posted very high strikeout rates in the minors and his overall whiff rate in the majors was solid, so I could see a path where he becomes an above-average reliever if the changeup becomes more consistent.
Santos originally signed with the Phillies and went to the Red Sox in a 2021 trade for infielder C.J. Chatham. He missed all of 2023 with a right elbow injury but has returned to pitch in winter ball. Before 2023, he was mostly 91-93 mph with a 55 changeup and 45 at best slider, with enough control (5.5 percent walk rate) to potentially profile as an emergency starter or swingman even without an average breaking ball. He was homer-prone in Double A and Triple A, however, and that alone probably limits him to a bulk role and precludes him from becoming a fifth starter or more in the majors. If healthy for 2024, he could at least give the Cardinals some length from their bullpen.
The Cardinals have too many outfielders as it is, as they’re committed to former top-10 overall prospect Jordan Walker and to Lars Nootbaar, with Dylan Carlson, Richie Palacios, Tommy Edman, Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan also in the mix. Walker and Burleson both struggled defensively last year, and Nootbaar hasn’t hit lefties yet. Carlson hasn’t progressed from what looked like a promising 2021 campaign, while Edman is likely to play in the infield, so very little is settled beyond the fact that they have more outfielders than they need. It made sense for them to move on from O’Neill and take whatever they could get, even if it’s just a middle reliever and swingman with six years of control apiece.
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For Boston, O’Neill is a stopgap as they wait for Roman Anthony, who finished the year in Double A, to reach the majors, assuming Ceddanne Rafaela takes the majority of reps in center for them in 2024 — Rafaela is an elite defender but punched out 28 times in 89 major-league plate appearances (31 percent) in his debut this past season. O’Neill could platoon with Jarred Duran and/or Masataka Yoshida, both left-handed batters, and provides some insurance if Duran isn’t back immediately from toe surgery or if Rafaela needs to go back to Triple A, but if O’Neill’s playing every day he’s likely to cost the team with his inability to get on base against righties.
The return for St. Louis seems more than fair for a player they truly didn’t need, especially since his value has to be at its nadir, while Boston may have felt like they could trade from the deepest end of its pitching pool after adding three arms in the Alex Verdugo swap.
(Top photo of O’Neill: Scott Kane / Associated Press)
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